The supply-demand balance and the fluctuation in exchange rates continue to affect oil prices upwards. While oil prices continue their strong course, US-based investment bank Goldman Sachs recently increased its 12-month Brent oil forecast from $93 to $100. While the barrel price of Brent oil is based on 95 dollars, Energy Markets Expert Ali Arif Aktürk said that the liter price of gasoline will exceed 50 liras at the end of the year.
Energy Markets Expert Ali Arif Aktürk evaluated the latest developments in the oil market to Deniz Dalgıç from Elips Haber. Citing the reasons for the increase in oil prices, Aktürk said, “Daily supply and demand balance affects oil prices. The important thing is that futures markets affect the oil price like a locomotive. Currently, Russia and Saudi Arabia strictly comply with OPEC's quota decisions. Especially Russia, although not a member of OPEC, was acting together with OPEC, but it did not always comply so much. Now he also complies with these quota restrictions. There is a psychological reason for this. But the most important thing is that futures markets affect the spot market. Goldman Sachs recently published a report. According to the report; Brent oil is expected to be $107 in the first quarter of 2024. JP Morgan is in a similar situation. Such banks act speculatively in commodity markets. When we look at the report published by OPEC every month, 'net long positions' show the trend of the price. Net long positions mean open buying. In other words, futures market players are buying short. This means that 'oil prices will enter an upward trend'. They are currently trying to push it upwards with speculative action. Goldman Sachs's statement that "Brent oil will be $107" indicates that the position is upward. "This will raise the spotlight," he said.
Stating that oil prices will continue to increase, Aktürk said, “There is a statement in the literature: Every 500 thousand barrel cut will have a 2 dollar impact on oil prices. This varies by location. "When we put these together, oil prices will exceed 100 dollars by the first quarter of 2024," he said.
Sharing his expectation that oil prices will decline towards the 80 dollar band again in the same period of 2024, Aktürk said, “There are elections in the United States in November 2024. American voters are very sensitive to oil and fuel prices. I don't know whether Biden will be the candidate or not, but the Democratic Party will not want oil and fuel prices to increase further in order to win the election. For this reason, their own stocks are strategic stocks of 90 or 120 days, especially in developed countries around the world. If they make them available, which I expect towards the American elections, especially in the second and third quarters of 2024, oil prices will ease. "I expect Brent oil to soften towards the 80-85 dollar band by this time next year," he said.
